Age of uncertainty: Blockchain, geopolitics, and power shift (2025)

I’m known for my optimism. I try to give people something to build, not just something to worry about. But in the fog of the past few months, the bright spots have been dim—distant, even. And as much as I hate being the bearer of dread, I’m increasingly concerned. About theeconomy. Aboutblockchain. About trust, civics, and the unseen hands moving global narratives like pieces on a board.

Let’s start with the obvious: the United States government is on the precipice of a fiscal cliff. It must refinance trillions of dollars in debt in an environment of stubbornly high interest rates. This alone would be enough to rattle global markets, but add to that a chaotic stew oftrade policy, erratic tariffs, and election-season brinkmanship—and we’ve got a recipe for engineered collapse. President Donald Trump, now back in the driver’s seat, has every incentive to try and crash the economy now to bring rates down later, softening the path for long-term debt service and legacy preservation over the long term, so I am not bullish on anything in the short term.

But is it just economics?

I have also seen a marked uptick in bot activity across X and Facebook. Every mundane post becomes a political minefield. “What are you cooking for dinner?” invites 400 comments about immigration, vaccines, Russia/Ukraine, Hunter Biden, Israel/Palestine, Elon Musk… That’s not organic. And what about the vandalism and protests at Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA)? The sudden outpouring of rage toward a company that was, just yesterday, a darling of the progressive elite—now defaced and attacked by what looks like a well-funded, well-coordinated machine.

And that’s actually even scarier to think about. If it’s not organic, who’s funding it, and to what end?

Even closer to home,Trump’s blockchain policystrikes me as incoherent at best and dangerously corrupt at worst. I’ve tried to be fair to Trump over the years. I don’t worship him. I don’t hate him. But when a sitting president aligns himself withArthur Hayes—convicted of financial crimes and co-founder ofBitMEX—to issue a pardon, I wonder who is paying the bills. I can see why, even if largely guilty, someone like Ross Ulbricht didn’t deserve to die in prison because he was young and idealistic when Silk Road started, and there is an argument to be made that it all got out of hand in a way that wasn’t as much malicious as it was circumstantial.

This is not the case with BitMEX. The exchange is a sophisticated business that was built and operated by sophisticated people with experience in the business of this sector with clear knowledge ofKYC/AMLlaws that they were breaking on purpose. They knew the risks going in, and their punishments were largely slaps on the wrist that included some basic fines and probation.

Why bother? Why waste political capital for brazen white-collar criminals? Well, the mainstream of the cryptosphere thinks they are heroes!

What happened to principle? What happened to transparency? Why not also pardonRoger Ver? Or does he deserve to die in prison because he’s not aBTCinsider?

And before we forget about Ross (again,) if the President believes Ross deserves a pardon—and we know he does—then shouldn’t the conversation also include the restitution of Ross’s assets? Otherwise, it just looks like another cynical move: confiscate assets, give yourself credit for their increase in value, and call it “strategy” to get along with Miami Mike’s narrative about permanent bullishness.

I would say I’m confused, except that would require me assuming good faith from anyone in the conversation.

If Trump wants to advocate for aBitcoin strategyor even a vague blockchain strategy, why not embrace people without serious criminal history or reputational baggage? Why not take two looks at the original protocol—the one that can actually scale, tokenize, and serve the needs of an efficient American payment and data economy?BSVis in the strategic reserve, y’know! It could be used to bootstrap every other blockchain plan that has been proposed by this administration.

Instead, we havememecoinson Solana, aDeFiproject on ETH or SUI or something.

A BTC Reserve made up of stolen coins… And let’s not even start on the swamp ofTetherconnections—Paolo Ardoino and Howard Lutnick—standing behind “digitally sovereign” dollar projects. If the goal is to create transparency, why do we keep turning to the same people who built shadow banks in broad daylight and laughed about regulations while paying fines for being criminally under-collateralized?

What worries me most is that thesignals of collapseare all flashing red. Layoffs are mounting. Housing is frozen. Freddie Mac is watching its underwater mortgage list swell to crisis levels. The “everything bubble” is leaking air, and the smart money is fleeing to metals—always the last stronghold of distrust in fiat systems.

I don’t have the answers. But I do know this: confidence in money, in leadership, and in institutions is eroding. Virtue signaling won’t patch the cracks. We needreal-world utility, transparency, and hard conversations. We need honest leadership—not just in the White House or the Federal Reserve—but in blockchain, too. Otherwise, we’ll be left holding an empty bag of narratives while the real value moves offshore.

And the saddest part is that I don’t think there are only maybe a dozen people in significant positions globally with enough influence to move the needle on anything. I think we are in for a very wild ride, and there isn’t going to be much to do about it except holding the line where we can.

I’m not going anywhere, though. There’s nowhere to go.

We just have to see it through! A good recession can be cleansing, and we will climb out of it more quickly as steadfast people build the new world!

Watch: Reviving the true value of blockchain—utility